U.S. benchmarks were little changed ahead of the bell, but the S&P set a fresh record high overnight. Today unfolds into tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision with a deluge of earnings and a busy economic calendar.
U.S. benchmarks finished last week strongly and are clinging to those gains at the onset of a new one. In a jam-packed week ahead, we look to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday and earnings from the 6 largest companies by market cap in the U.S.
A magnificent start to the month and quarter certainly calls for some profit taking, but let us not forget that each month-end so far this year has seen a bat with volatility. Furthermore, next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting begs to keep things interesting.
U.S. benchmarks still pointed lower ahead of the bell and several macro narratives have been weighing on the tape. Still, all things considered, this is a very expected pullback after the S&P and NQ both went a little too far, a little too quickly.
This week’s economic calendar will not test last week’s supportive footprint until Friday’s Flash PMIs, but we dive headfirst into earnings season and hear from both the Bank of Canada and the ECB ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Retail Sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Weekly Jobless Claims all came due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production was released at 8:15 a.m. CT and will be followed by a lineup of Fed speakers through the afternoon.
Core CPI came in far from the feared hot read. Additionally, after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard correlated a 75% vaccination rate as a baseline for taper talk, the Johnson & Johnson news could’ve been broadly supportive.
Fed Chair Powell has continued to emphasize his rhetoric that an acceleration in inflation through the summer is only expected to be transitory due to expected base data. Still, we didn't want to see the data run away and bring cause for policy to be reactionary.
Chair Powell's interview gives credence to the Fed’s patience with its unprecedented policy measures and rhetoric of symmetrical inflation targeting. Coincidentally, the story comes ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal CPI read and a deluge of Treasuries hitting the market.
U.S. benchmarks finished Q1 and started Q2 with fireworks before Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report brought added tailwinds. We now view the next 2-3 sessions as critical in solidifying investors’ appetite for the next 3-week narrative and defining a very bullish technical breakout.