Monday's Close

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (September): Settled at 4459.50, up 10.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (September): Settled at 15,430, down 4.00

Inflation was front and center this morning: August U.S. CPI came in at 7:30 a.m. CT and essentially met expectations for it to remain high, but not accelerate from already elevated levels. Despite inflation running persistently hotter than the Federal Reserve’s target, Fed Chair Powell has insisted it’s transitory and has remained ever-patient. Due to a headline miss on job creation for August, expectations for the bank to announce a taper were pushed out to November or December. 

Data for July job openings, however, was released last week and showed a fresh record. The jobs are available and pandemic unemployment benefits expired last week. Estimates for job growth in September are mounting by everyone from big bank economists to macro tourists. A hotter-than-expected number today will certainly up the ante on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Tonight, we look to a deluge of economic data from China for the month of August. At 9:00 p.m. CT, they release Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales. Industrial Production at a YoY rate is watched most closely and has slowed for 5 straight months since the base surge in February. Expectations are for a 6th slip from 6.4% in July to 5.8% in August. 

Despite the rise in Covid-19 cases and draconian efforts to stave off the wave in August, data showed a rebound in Crude Oil imports for the month, which has underpinned the energy space amid a slew of other factors. Also, a surge in New Loan data last Friday helped lift Copper for a 24-hour surge. Which narrative does tonight’s data fall in line with?

Interested in our technical perspective? Please sign up to have Blue Line Futures technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.