Oil prices firmed up today on the prospects that China will start coming around to honoring its Phase One obligations for energy. It's anticipated that they may purchase up to 20 million barrels of oil before year end, which would equate to just over 2 days worth of U.S. production.

Oil prices are in a tight range creeping higher, and this Thursday is August 20 our next cycle turn date. With potential oil draws showing up on the inventory data again this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, a potential push to 44.50-45.00 could be in the cards before our next cycle change occurs.

The 3 recent cycle highs have ushered in a short-term mini high that would take place for at least 3-4 calendar days before again reverting back to the uptrend. Whether we have the same thing again this month as the last 3 months is an unknown. But we do believe that we'll target 49.00-50.00 by year end. The hight hurricane season begins in a couple of weeks, and that's a likely scenario to help usher in our summer high before a fall retreat.

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