This week’s major market ranges: 5 bears, 4 bulls and ...

March 23, 2018 02:01 PM

The S&P 500, gold, bitcoin and soybeans (mixed state) do chart bullish to me for next week. In contrast, the yen, euro, pound (multi-timeframes), Aussie (multi-timeframes), and crude show some bearish technical conditions for next week-quarter from monthly charts already noted. The short call spread weekly trade ideas in these is derived from bearish candlesticks in multiple time frames, volume and Fisher indicators, and range extension this week. clear. The Aussie, euro, soybeans and British pound show trending pivots for next week, and the yen (two-time frames), gold (two-time frames), Aussie, bitcoin and soybeans have range compression that also can produce wider weekly ranges than average.

My mid-week Iron Condor trade idea to go long the S&P to the 2750 zone yielded a volatility collapse, 2744, but brief time decay scalping, before unexpected news spawned a selloff. Please view the bullish buying Thu. from 12-12:30 p.m. Central on a five-min. $TICK chart that even had a bull engulf candle at 12:20 pm. What market participants were buying a crashing market at lunch? Tonight, off the monthly Camarilla Pivot low, I am strongly bullish to my projected fair value range >2720 on the S&P. The Fibonacci halfway points between the March 12 high and March 23 low square up at my 2720 level and Tue. time pivot. Long the daily hammer today!

My longer-horizon bear trade perspectives continue for the Euro, Pound, Aussie, soybeans and maybe crude, with the Crude/Aussie not yet as weak.

Regarding last week’s predictions, the trending pivot math identified last Friday in crude and soybeans did forecast the wide-range and unidirectional (few turns) character of this week. The Pound’s, Crude’s, and Gold’s specific range compressions mentioned last week did support wide ranges this week. The Aussie (in the same listed group) did not produce a wide range nor an “immediate” bounce. I noted two potential trade setups last Friday (fading yen high, S&P 500 dip buys) that worked into midweek but would’ve become losing trades if not exited on Wednesday.

For current technical curiosities, Crude is trying to break through the overhead Monthly 200-Simple Moving Average, and the Pound is rejecting its Weekly 200-Simple Moving Average. Bitcoin is dancing like a ghost between its weekly/monthly camarilla buy pivots range! No advice rendered. Seek a professional.
 

Predicted ranges for the week ending March 30

S&P 500

High:2739- 2720/Low" 2658-2634    

Japanese yen

High: 9628-9591/Low: 9445-9426    

Eurodollar

High: 1.2470-1.2368/Low: 1.2360-1.2303

Gold

High: $1,361-$1,356/Low:$1,334-$1,324

Crude Oil

High: $67.10-$66.08 Low: $63.41-$62.48

British Pound

High: 1.433-1.425/Low: 1.406-1.403

Aussie Dollar

High: .7821-.7795/Low: .7674-.7644   

Soybeans

High: $10.50-$10.397/Low: $10.16-$10.0524

Bitcoin (XBT)

High: $10,000- $9,120/Low: $9,400-$7,720  7      

 

Projected & actual ranges for the week ending Mar. 23 (as of Thursday night/Friday morning)

S&P 500

High: 2817- 280

Low: 2732-2710 

Actual 2756-2617

Japanese Yen

High: 9614-956

Low: 9458-9428

Actual 9613-9433

Euro

High: 1.2514-1.2368

Low: 1.2360-1.2266

Actual 1.246-1.232

Gold

High:$1,330-$1,326

Low: $1,312-$1,306 

Actual $1,339-$1,306

Crude oil

High: $63.15-$62.35

Low: $60.35-$59.29

Actual $65.74-$61.75

British Pound           

High: 1.411-1.406

Low:1.393-1.388

Actual 1.427-1.397

Aussie dollar

High: .7903-.7855

Low: .7777-.7727

Actual .7788-.76742

Soybeans

High: $10.75-$10.61 Low: $10.36-$10.24

Actual $10.45-$10.21

Bitcoin (XTB)

High: $9,820- $9,120

Low: $7,751-$6,797 Actual:  $9,190-$8,100   

 

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines. His study of financial markets led to his beliefs that investors can be self-directed and that market moves could be predicted using a variety of technical indicators and mathematics. His website is www.trevorsmithfnp.com. @TrevorSmithCTA