Dollar/Loonie may have a date with six-year high as crude’s collapse continues

July 7, 2015 08:36 AM

Global traders remain hyper-focused on the latest Greece-related rhetoric from such influential luminaries as Latvia’s Central Bank Governor, Lithuania’s Finance Minister, and even the Finance Minister of Malta, but perhaps investors should be focusing just as much energy on the collapse in the price of: Energy.

In particular, oil has gone off the boil, with WTI falling nearly 8% in yesterday’s trade alone. Beyond an last week’s surprising increase in U.S. oil rigs and the ongoing Greek debt drama, the primary catalyst for the drop in oil has been optimism about a nuclear deal with Iran that could eventually bring up to 1 million barrels per day of the country’s oil back to the global market. Over the weekend, Russia’s Foreign Minister said that a deal with Iran “is about 90%” complete and suggested that the remaining issues were more procedural than political.

Combined with last week’s technical breakdown below 57.00, traders took these comments as a green light to drive WTI down to a low near 52.00 so far. “Black gold” is now testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its entire Q2 rally at 52.30, but if that level gives way, a continuation down toward the 61.8% retracement near the psychologically-significant $50 level could be next.

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About the Author

Senior Technical Analyst for FaradayResearch. Matt has actively traded various financial instruments including stocks, options, and forex since 2005. Each day, he creates research reports focusing on technical analysis of the forex, equity, and commodity markets. In his research, he utilizes candlestick patterns, classic technical indicators, and Fibonacci analysis to predict market moves. Weller is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association.