The jobless claims are released shortly with expectations for 278K in initial claims from last at a multi-year low of 262K last week. It was last week that market participants took strong notice that the series did not jibe with the weak March payroll figure. A few traders climbed the fence to join the few who would suggest that the March employment figures were ‘catch-up’ to the weak production numbers of Q1 and not a progression of declining economic conditions.
The 10-year Treasury futures traded to within a half tic of the 126-13, 200 day moving average and then recovered more than a point, currently trading nearer to yesterday’s opening level of 127-12+. A settle above that level would create a bullish technical condition. This is not something I would project, but do not want to ignore the possibility.