The U.S. dollar is mixed as it gained against the euro, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen, but lost ground against the CAD, GBP and AUD. Political risk continues to impact markets as U.S. uncertainty, the official triggering of Brexit and the upcoming French elections make investors anxious even as energy markets rebound thanks to a possible extension to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cut deal. On the diplomatic front, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States and is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump for the first in-person meeting on April 6–7.
The euro/British pound (EUR/GBP) currency pair may start to ease as speculators potentially reduce their record net short positions in GBP and increase their bearish bets on the euro. However, the long-term outlook on GBP remains uncertain, so we are only expecting – at this stage – a moderate GBP recovery relative to EUR.
Trumpmania is taking a break from dominating the global media headlines as UK Prime Minister Theresa May is the talk of the town after she finally invoked Article 50, effectively providing a letter to the European Union telling Europe that the United Kingdom wants a divorce.
I am on the lookout for short-to-medium term bullish price patterns to form on the GBP/USD and other GBP pairs in the coming days. Currently, the cable is stuck within its wide 1.20-1.27 range. But is in the upper half and above the now rising 50-day moving averages. A couple of higher lows have now been formed.
It is not the failed healthcare bill itself that has caused all these market moves. Yes that may well have been the trigger, but investors are worried about the challenges Trump will face in trying to get his other policies passed which may well limit the government’s fiscal spending. The worry is that only will this weigh on GDP, but potentially on inflation too. Thus, the Fed may not raise interest rates as aggressively as had been priced in, hence the falls in the dollar.
The euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair looks set to close higher for the fourth consecutive week. That sounds impressive. But to put things into perspective, it has been trading inside a narrow range between 1.05 and 1.08 for much of this year. The 300 or so pip range is nothing to get excited over. But then this is the EUR/USD we are talking about. It hasn’t exactly moved much since early 2015. Nevertheless, there’s no doubt about which group of market participants have been in control this month, and, in fact, quarter.
With strong Eurozone data and ahead of Canadian CPI, we are naturally drawn to the EUR/CAD today. Well, the EUR/CAD has been trending higher since the end of February after it created a false break reversal pattern around the 1.38 handle. It tried to break below that support level several times, but failed.
If the USD/JPY were to break below this support region, which is our base case scenario, then the next stop could be around the 108-109 area. This is where the support trend of the bearish channel meets the 50% retracement level and the 200-day moving average.