For the next month or so most risk asset markets are likely to be driven by the more normal price drivers, which include the state of the European debt situation, global economic growth and the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
The USD has recently broken a multi-month upward supportive trendline dating back to October 2011, and a new upper resistance line is forming from the lower highs that have been put in these past two months.
The oil complex is in a battle between the perception traders, who look for more stimulative measures, and the reality traders, who see the global economy is slowing and demand for oil will continue to decline.
As Hurricane Isaac passes through the area over the next several days the industry will be able to quickly assess the condition of the oil and Nat Gas facilities. Until then, it focuses on inventories.
The oil market was hit with a one-two punch that has sent prices toward the lower end of the trading range. First the latest minutes from the last US Fed FOMC meeting suggested that the Fed may be backing away from QE3.