The main and most important short term oil price driver continues to be the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. Neither Russia nor Mexico showed a willingness to cut their production in support of an OPEC cut.
The shale gas revolution in the United States has led to a collapse in prices but is too big to keep to ourselves. That is turning natural gas from a domestic market to a global one, and the global demand may cure the current low prices.
Pull out the party hats! Dow closed above 15000 for the first time in history! Although the Dow is rocking, and that has been a factor in the increase in oil from the lows, Dow records are just not what they used to be.
In the past when OPEC’s back has been against the wall, like the late-1990s, energy prices and demand rebounded to save them from the ash heap of history. Yet this time may be different. Why? Because OPEC is not the only game in town!
Natural gas hit a decade low and shows us once again the cyclical nature of commodities. Back in 2002, the last time natural gas was this low, the market was still trying to come to grips with the post 9-11 slowdown.