A large draw in total U.S. crude oil stocks reported by the API late yesterday has resulted in a light round of short covering in a market that remains oversold. As of this morning the crude oil market is still in positive territory but well off of the overnight highs hit after the API data release as the industry awaits the more widely followed EIA oil inventory snapshot.
Crude oil posted its biggest 3-day rally since 1990 and put futures back in bull market territory based on a report that U.S. oil production may be falling faster than previously reported, and OPEC is willing to talk with non-Opec oil producers to try to establish a "fair price for oil."
It has been a difficult time for commodities across the board, at least from a long perspective. Until recently, it was the shorts in markets that have been struggling as the global crises like China and Greece did more to stop rallies rather than actually produce any real selling.
Suddenly, markets are hitting trouble all over the place. I can’t tell you how many outs we have left but it appears we are starting to run low. We are coming to the slowest trading period of the year so I don’t think the market is in any imminent danger but I am starting to get concerned about what can happen in the fall.