What is a trend? There are countless ways to answer that question, but I’ve always been partial to perhaps the simplest definition: an uptrend is when an asset moves from the lower left to the upper right corner of the chart, and a downtrend is when it moves from the upper left to the lower right corner.
Investors in Asia largely brushed off the ongoing trade fight between China and the United States, with Shanghai’s blue-chip stocks climbing 2.4%, a move supported by the tech and financial sectors. Solid economic data and possible government intervention through monetary & fiscal policies encouraged investors to take some risk on Thursday.
Falling in the awkward post-US, pre-Asian session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver its quarterly monetary policy statement in just a few hours (21:00 GMT). While the release is functionally equivalent to the Fed’s “live” quarterly meetings when it delivers updated assessments on the economy, the primary difference is that the RBNZ is nowhere near making any meaningful changes to policy; instead, traders will try to “read between the lines” for more insight on how the central bank is leaning for the future.
Price action on the New Zealand dollar/Canadian dollar (NZD/CAD) currency pair looks quite heavy and a breakdown appears imminent. Market participants are showing a preference for the Canadian dollar following the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate hikes and given the outlook for further policy tightening in the months ahead.
When it comes to the forex market, the New Zealand dollar punches well above its weight. New Zealand famously has a larger population of sheep than people, and the country’s GDP ranked just 70th among individual countries last year (behind powerhouses such as Greece, Uzbekistan and Ecuador).
The New Zealand dollar will remain in focus after trading on Wall Street ends this evening, as Statistics New Zealand releases the latest growth estimate. The nation’s GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to 0.6% in Q3. If the data beats expectations then the kiwi, which has been outperforming her peers, could further extend its gains.
I have been writing about the New Zealand Dollar lately and I think it has bottomed, turned and will continue to head higher. I think a first initial major target is the January 2017 high right above 73.50.