The U.S. dollar is mixed against major pairs. Safe havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and the euro have gained against the greenback, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars along with the pound are lower. Strong data in Europe boosted the single currency but the rally was short-lived after the Trump administration announced a review of US-EU trade that could result in a 20% tariff on European car imports.
The coming week (June 25-29) should continue the minimally reversing, trending markets moves, but with the addition of rowdy bullhorns in several symbols. The only potential mathematic exceptions are crude oil, soybeans and bitcoin.
Today’s news cycle is providing a reprieve from yesterday’s pressure and U.S. equity markets are responded thus far. U.S. benchmarks traded lower into the bell and although the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 secured outside bearish daily settlements, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq failed to close below our major three-star support, which would have signaled further immediate downside.
The historic OPEC NON-OPEC production agreement became known as OPEC plus one. Russia became that plus one as they joined OPEC and conspired with them to reduce production and ultimately raise production and reduce supply. As OPEC meets today it is OPEC minus one. Iran seems to be the lone holdout from a production deal that’s on paper.
The week started with the US and China announcing tariffs against one another which will come into effect on 6 July, and it will end with the European Union announcing counter-tariffs against the world’s largest economy in response to those already imposed. While much of what has been announced this week was already anticipated, the rhetoric between these huge trading partners is heating up and that’s a major concern for investors.
After slipping from headlines for 24 hours, the United States and China trade tensions are stealing the show once again. Benchmarks around the globe are taking note and Europe is adding to pressures with Italian debt climbing on political concerns. The all-awaited June OPEC Meeting is underway. Saudi Arabia has defended the proposition to raise output by pointing to tighter supply fundamentals that could lead to a deficit later this year.
OPEC speculation and a strong dollar on trade war fears is providing highs and lows on the crude oil market. Oil was rallying on a big 5.9 million barrels draw in inventory, and a record-breaking week for U.S. refiners as they ran a seasonal record 17.7 million barrels a day crude oil last week according to Energy Information Administration data.
The U.S. dollar has jumped to its strongest level in nearly a year, raising questions about how a strong greenback could act as a drag on debt and oil demand in much of the world. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced another rate hike a few days ago, which helped edge up the dollar to a new high for the year.