In corn, export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,974,400 metric tons, well above the top end of expectations which ranged from 1,000,000-1,500,000 metric tons; last weeks read was 1,769,595 metric tons.
Friday offered a surprising report for corn seeing that funds had covered 89K shorts in just one week. While that still leaves funds short 131K it was quite a bit more active than expected. A knee-jerk reaction to that news is to lose some support as other speculators ease up on buying ahead of the funds. It's a simple idea that buying ahead of the funds when they are record short can offer a large potential for fund help to your buy order.
Most markets I track for each coming week are in entering rangebound statistical conditions, with the exception of the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and corn futures. The yen, Aussie and corn have trending math elements that favor few turns and wide-reaching directional distances in price, with the Aussie making a monthly chart 50-simple moving average breakout, thus far. I’m bullish on all three. I was right that the Aussie’s subtle setup last week could make a surprise move, which it did, although the other symbol with the same conditions made a milder move.
Soybeans started the year on an up note as all three legs of the complex closed higher; Friday's COT report showed funds were light buyers of 15,500 contracts, good news for corn bulls; Hard Red Winter Wheat regions are still under a barrage of cold weather and wind chill warnings.
December was a fitting end for a year in which none of the major agricultural contracts – corn, wheat, or soybeans – ended more than 5% higher or lower than a year ago. The corn market was particularly quiet with only a 14-cent trading range for the month and a settlement price almost identical to a year ago.