This past Thanksgiving trading week, the December 2013 E-mini S&P 500 opened at 1802 and closed at 1804. We could be seeing an early month correction along with end of the year profit-taking. December is the second best month for equity returns averaging an estimated 1.5%.
Last week the Dec. E-mini S&P 500 opened at 1767.00 and closed the week making new highs along the way at 1793.50. No close yet above 1800. Now I agree that PE ratios do look goods, so why does it seem that tapering talk spooks the market, or does it?
On the horizon, a FOMC is coming, actually next week on Sept. 17 and 18. Will we see tapering? Will we see a hawkish Fed or a dovish Fed? To prepare the U.S. dollar for a hawkish Fed or even tapering, the U.S. dollar needs to drop.
The Federal Reserve knows how a weaker U.S. dollar helps U.S. exports. Any threat to U.S. exports — a strengthening U.S. dollar — could hurt exports, in turn hurting the U.S. economy, which could hurt jobs.