Crude oil prices are out of the crisis zone, trading back above $40 a barrel and if it closes above there, it may show that the world may not be falling apart. A combination of the strongest rally on Wall Street since 2011 and a rally in China overnight, on some alleged government stock buying, is setting the stage for a possible bottom in oil.
Crude oil prices fell below $40 a barrel signaling that not all is well with the global economy. In a global equity market rout, fear trading has taken hold as traders run to the safe haven of bonds and run from just about everything else.
Crude oil prices ended their worst month since the 2008 financial crisis after 3 events in a row knocked oil and other commodities for a loop. Those three events in order are Greece, Iran and China; and while I guess you can't call them "black swan" events, the timing of all three colliding at the same time led to the oil markets July swan song.
A Greek deal and a possible Iran deal is giving crude oil mixed signals. On one hand, it seems that a deal in Greece will allow the market to focus on the more positive data that has been coming out of the Eurozone.
Crude oil prices took a nosedive on Wednesday afternoon when the EIA published its latest supply data. Although this showed that crude stocks fell by a good 3.9 million barrels last week (which was the first decline since early January), oil prices were unable to advance any further than they already had.
OPEC’s decision to refrain from action had an immediate effect on crude oil prices. Prices sunk as it became clear Saudi Arabia is more concerned with losing markets share than the pressure low prices are putting on its cartel partners.