The current U.S. bond market faces a "liquidity cliff" and looks like an asset "bubble" that could burst when interest rates start to rise, according to the senior U.S. securities regulator. This is something we have been warning of in recent months.
One possible indicator of secular stagnation is credit intensity -- that is, how many dollars of new credit are associated with each added dollar of gross domestic product. The higher the ratio, the more likely it is that the amount of credit being created is more than the underlying economy can bear.
According to Socionomic theory, social mood turns incredibly angry several years after a financial crash. This one is playing right up to every anticipation I’ve ever had when comparing to the panic of 1907 leading to the war.
Hidden Markov models are making inroads into institutional trading. Their applications are broad. One, forecasting future indicator values, can give you an edge trading the currency and commodity markets.