A large draw in total U.S. crude oil stocks reported by the API late yesterday has resulted in a light round of short covering in a market that remains oversold. As of this morning the crude oil market is still in positive territory but well off of the overnight highs hit after the API data release as the industry awaits the more widely followed EIA oil inventory snapshot.
More signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy may not be enough to overcome a potential slowdown in U.S. oil output. The preliminary Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.0 in September, its lowest since March 2009 yet only down slightly from last month. The weakness was well telegraphed by other readings but how well telegraphed was the drop in U.S. oil inventories?
Today, the EIA will release their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook Report (STEO). The market will be very focused on the EIA’s new projection for U.S. crude production now that they are employing a new survey method for crude production.
Crude oil prices wash out after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a surprise drop in refinery runs and a lower forecast from that seems to suggest that the pain in the oil market may not be over.
The IEA indicated in its report that the long-awaited rebalancing of the global oil market has begun but is likely to last through 2016 as the supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016. Overall it was a supportive report but one that is still projecting supply to outstrip demand through 2016.