The dollar has fallen across the board today. After Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs report, today saw factory orders come in at -3.3% month-over-month for July. Although expected, this was yet another piece of economic data pointing to weakness in the US economy, which could deteriorate further due to the economic damage Hurricane Harvey has caused.
The official U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday, Sept. 1. Due to the fact that some of the key leading indicators will be released after the NFP, it is even more difficult to predict this month's headline figure with any reasonable degree of confidence.
From being one of the strongest to one of the weakest currencies in space of two days. That’s right, the euro is actually falling for once. The single currency is partly lower because of the drop in the euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair exchange rate as the dollar firms up across the board thanks to short covering and positive surprise in U.S. data.
The U.S. dollar’s selling had paused ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium last week, but then it accelerated again. That was until earlier this morning as since then the dollar has made a small comeback against a number of her rivals due above all to profit-taking. The greenback fell sharply on Friday after Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, remained tight-lipped about the future path of U.S. monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar is lower against most majors as the central bank summit in Jackson Hole kicked off. The Euro has regained January 2015 levels on Friday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in what could be her last appearance at the Wyoming gathering as chief of the U.S. central bank, focused on financial regulation with limited comments on monetary policy.
Arguably the most important data for this week will be released later on today: the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Both headline and core CPI are expected to have risen 0.2% month-over-month in July. On a year-over-year basis, CPI is seen rising to 1.8% from 1.6% in June, while core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged at 1.7% last month. If the Producer Price Index (PPI) measure of inflation is anything to go by then CPI may also miss expectations. If so, the U.S. dollar could resume its downtrend, which could underpin buck-denominated precious metals further in these times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
After an eventful last week, the start of this one has been very quiet so far. Monday saw minimal volatility across the majors as the dollar extended its NFP-related rebound against the commodity currencies but declined slightly versus the euro. The single currency rose despite data showing German industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.1% in June.
The British pound/U.S. dollar currency pair suffered a double whammy on the last two days of last week, resulting in a 245-pip drop from the week’s high to the low. First, it was the Bank of England on Thursday, which came across as less hawkish than expected as only two members voted for a rate rise, followed by a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report on Friday.