What is a trend? There are countless ways to answer that question, but I’ve always been partial to perhaps the simplest definition: an uptrend is when an asset moves from the lower left to the upper right corner of the chart, and a downtrend is when it moves from the upper left to the lower right corner.
Another week has flown by and what a disastrous one it has been for the likes of the Turkish lira and to a lesser degree the British pound, but once again it has been a good for the US dollar. Next week should be equally exciting as there are a few important data releases to look forward to, while the ongoing situation in Turkey could bring about further volatility – not just for the lira but the stock markets too.
The U.S. dollar appreciated versus most major pairs on Friday. The Japanese yen outperformed the greenback as a safe haven, but all other major currencies suffered heavy losses during the week. Tense trade developments between China and the United States and Friday’s drop in the Turkish lira dragged emerging and developed markets lower as US sanctions were doubled.
After a five-day losing streak, the euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair has finally – at least for the time being – put an end to its recent downward trend and was climbing back towards the 1.16 handle. Other major euro crosses were also trading higher, suggesting it was not just the dollar weakness that had helped to underpin the EUR/USD.
The dollar has remained bid against most currencies post-Friday’s U.S. jobs report. The greenback rose on Friday in reaction to the mixed-bag nonfarm payrolls report which showed a weaker-than-expected headline number, but that was offset by positive revisions to the previous reports and a decent but expected rise in average hourly earnings figure.
The dollar’s choppiness has been a dominant theme for several weeks now, but as we come to the business end of this week, it could finally make a more decisive move in one or the other direction. The indecisiveness is a reflection of a tired bullish trend: market participants have been piling in on the greenback for several months amid an improving macro picture in the United States and speculation over further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted on Friday, this week promises to be an interesting one for forex traders, with the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve all set to meet, in addition to the always-noteworthy monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
Asian equities kicked off the week in negative territory following the declines on Wall Street on Friday. The solid U.S. GDP data did little to support markets. The economy expanded at its quickest pace since 2014 in the second quarter, growing 4.1%, almost double the first quarter’s growth. However, investors have already priced in the positive news and so it came as no surprise. In fact, the surprise was in some of the big tech earnings results, in particular, Facebook, Twitter and Intel, which led to declines of more than 2.4% on the Nasdaq Composite Index on Thursday and Friday.
The U.S. dollar is mixed on Friday against major pairs. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1% pace on the second quarter according to the first estimate. The number came in right on the forecast which had no positive effect for the U.S. dollar, but it did validate the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to keep a tighter monetary policy with two more rate hikes in the horizon this year.