The week of July 30 presents breakout traders gold, Eurodollar and crude oil setups. All three are in narrow ranges on multiple time frames with inside-range pivots, compared to this week. Monthly pivots are also inside-range on the Eurodollar and crude oil, making this a time-pivots breakout as well. If one considers the last 10 days’ range as a time series, then half of its length could be rotated upwards/downwards in the price axis (use your finger’s distal phalanx for past 5-6 days and rotate 90-degrees up/down) to give a $71.00/barrel or $66.00/barrel target as a rough estimate that may seem today like a crazy place for price to be.
By mid-March 2018, rhetoric regarding trade relations between the United States and China began to heat up. President Trump started this earlier in the year with an announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs. Later he focused more on China and Chinese officials responded in kind. The heated-up rhetoric seemed to be capable of starting a serious trade war in which each country would boost tariffs that would raise the cost of the other nation’s exported products.
The coming week, starting Monday, July 16, should present more sideways markets than breakouts, although gold and the Eurodollar currently (as of Friday morning on July 13) have pivots with breakout lower setups. Of course, the Eurodollar extreme candle reversal up signal and the gold moving average supports on multiple time frames with bullish candlestick patterns can cause a lower-pivots rejection in each/either symbol. Such a rejection would be bullishly volatile, whilst various groups of traders would, in theory, battle it out.
The coming week (July 13) should yield an array of trending bullish breakouts, upticks, and up-to-sideways plays (except bearish-sideways crude oil). How are we going to know which bull trades to take/place that are clear signals or high-probability wins? I don’t know. I can lay out the information I have for informed/educated reader decisions that include the countertrade perspectives.
December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 5-½ cents, trading in a 10-¼ cent range, trimming losses for the week to 6-¼ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money sold 33,313 futures from June 19 to June 26, expanding their net short position to 90,764.
Quant Cycles (formerly called the Cycle Projection Oscillator) is a technical tool that employs proprietary statistical techniques and complex algorithms to filter multiple cycles from historical data, combines them to obtain cyclical information from price data and then gives a graphical representation of their productive behavior. Other proprietary frequency domain techniques then are employed to obtain the cycles embedded in the price.
Export inspections Thursday morning in corn came in at 1,511,746 metric tons, a strong number that offered little support to the market. Attention this week will be on weather and Friday’s USDA report which will give us an updated look at quarterly stocks and planted acres.
The coming week (June 25-29) should continue the minimally reversing, trending markets moves, but with the addition of rowdy bullhorns in several symbols. The only potential mathematic exceptions are crude oil, soybeans and bitcoin.
The coming week (June 18-22) should continue the trend of trending symbols. The only potential exceptions are gold and soybeans whose weekly pivots are sideways for reversal scalpers and who already made a wide-range move likely to consolidate sideways. However, both gold and beans have trending monthly pivots--a wild card working against my Iron Condor favorite trade.
July soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 5-¼ cents which put them up 44 ¼ cents for the week. Thanks to the big gap higher last Monday, futures traded in just a 28-¼ cent range. Friday’sCommitment of Traders report showed that managed money sold 6,276 futures from May 15th-May 22nd; this puts their net long position at 94,796 futures.