This week could be another volatile one for the stock markets. Now, you may be wondering why we are concentrating on the Nikkei as opposed to, say, a U.S. index, given the sheer number of high-impact U.S. data in the week ahead.
Amidst the recent global market turmoil, I’d like to postulate that “We are all USD/JPY traders now.” That’s because USD/JPY has become the de facto measure of risk appetite of late, leading to correlated moves in equities, commodities, bonds, and even other currency pairs. The most salient short-term example of this phenomenon is the recent roller coaster ride in U.S. equities.
The dollar rose on Wednesday as some calm returned to currency markets with Wall Street stock futures pointing to a firm start and European shares recouping some of their losses, all of which lessened the need to buy safe-haven currencies like the yen.
The euro and yen climbed to a seventh-month peak against the dollar on Monday as investors, worried about the slowdown in China, reversed riskier bets in so-called "carry trades" and bought back the low-interest rate currencies used to fund those assets.
Today’s economic data kicked off with the release of the ADP employment report, one of the better leading indicators for Friday’s marquee NFP report. The massive payroll provider determined that the US economy created 185k jobs last month, below the 216k expected by economists and traders. The June report was also revised down slightly, from 237k to 229k.