Commodities tried to turn the corner on reports of low-level talks about a framework to end the trade war and this made everyone realize that perhaps some of the fears of the backlash from a trade war were overblown. China is feeling the pain of the trade war while the United States looks to be gaining. If recent trade trends continue, it is possible that the United States may find it harder and harder to lift tariffs.
Crude oil prices are rising. We have a falling U.S. oil rig count and a surprise drop in Saudi oil production, against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical risk. Baker Hughes’ oil rig was countdown two, gas rig count dipped by three.

Trade war on hold - for now

Crude oil prices are pulling back from three-and-a-half-year highs after a leap in the U.S. oil rig count and a relatively calm weekend when it came to geopolitical tensions. Drillers added 10 oil rigs and 3 gas rigs bringing the total oil rig count to 844, the highest level since March 2015, according to Baker Hughes.
The oil drama continues as Repsol and Statoil move to pull oil workers from Venezuela as the country becomes less stable and may be on a path toward civil war. Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco said it is cutting supply to its customers by at least 520,000 barrels per day in September raising expectations that OPEC will get its compliance issues under control and start to rein in Libya and Nigerian production.
Crude oil is lower as the market has a lot to watch as the seasonal summer peak demand time is here. Seasonal wekness in August seems to be overshadowing a jammed packed oil news day. OPEC meets about compliance as the U.S. oil rig count slows. Storms in the Atlantic could impact shipping and Mexican oil production. Gas Buddy reports retail gas prices hit an eight-week high as the Venezuelan military puts down a coup.
Crude oil prices cap off their best monthly gain since April of 2016 as geopolitical risk is rising in Venezuela and a report from the Energy Information Administration(EIA) is saying that we are not producing as much oil as we thought we were.
Crude oil prices must find new balance as global oil stock piles are falling against surging global demand and an increasing amount of geopolitical risk. Russia and Venezuela are the hot issues, with Iran and North Korea lurking in the background.
What happens in the next 24 hours is that Venezuela is going to come due on about $3B in debt payments.
Crude oil prices are getting trumped up on a dose of economic optimism and signs that OPEC is serious about production cuts. Trump is making Americans feel great again as consumer confidence came in at a 15-year high, the highest reading since before the terrorist attacks on the world trade center back in 2001.