A healthy crop extended into this week’s progress report, which showed conditions unchanged and harvest progressing at a favorable pace. Corn rated at 74% good to excellent is 20% higher than last year’s crop rating.
The soybean market had been the slowest to break, but it began to catch up in August, losing more than 5% of its value. We still feel that soybeans are carrying a considerable risk premium and that they are the market with the greatest downside potential.
With the start of the spring-wheat harvest in Arnegard, North Dakota, a week away, the bins on Bob Wisness’s 11,000-acre farm are half full with last year’s crops that have been stranded by a train traffic jam.
The soybean market has a very interesting set up. Farmers have sold a record low percentage of the crop that is currently growing and overseas buyers have made record purchases of soybeans and soybean meal. Export registrations for soybean meal are more than double the previous record for this time of year.