Technicals

Soybean futures continued to roll over on a continuation of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. On top of the dwindling good news, there was some bearish news coming from South America,
Grinding data this week has cocoa futures testing highs from 2018. The March contract reached 2729 on Thursday. Asian demand increased and provided market support – leading to more speculative buying.
In yesterday’s report we wrote: “It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen.
China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.
Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).
Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.
The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner.
Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets.
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.
Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Fear and uncertainty immediately rattled through markets and the S&P lost 1.7% down to a low of 3181, tagging a critical level of support.