April is historically a strong month for equities. It is the best performing month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, third best performing month for the S&P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq Composite Index. It also represents the end of the best six-month period in the market. This is where the “Sell in May and go away” strategy comes from.
The fall in tech stocks and escalating trade tensions continued to rattle markets after the Easter break. The S&P 500 fell 2.2% on the first trading day of the second quarter, sending the Index back into correction territory (a more than 10% fall from its peak).
For beach party breakouts, soybeans, gold, and the British pound have higher narrow-range pivots inside each other for next week and month constituting a pivot breakout mix on multiple time frames- could a strangle/straddle apply? For a milder breakout story, crude has higher inside pivots for next week, and lower inside weekly pivots for next week are in the S&P 500 and inside lower monthly pivots in Bitcoin.
Stocks turned sharply lower in the last 12 hours based on 10-year U.S. T-Notes and the correlation with the E-mini S&P 500. Key for that move down was a breakout of an ending diagonal seen on the 10-year, which was a confirmation for a turn into a risk-off mode for stocks.
The S&P 500 and its daily time frame, where we see an incomplete higher degree impulse that is in progress since January of 2016. In the German DAX, where we also see price to be unfolding a bigger, bullish impulse (the DAX and the S&P 500 trade in positive correlations).
After a rough go in 2014 and 2015, energy prices slowly began their upward ascent in 2016 after bottoming out under $30 per barrel early that year. Since then, Brent crude oil touched $70 before settling comfortably above the $60 mark this year.