The week of July 30 presents breakout traders gold, Eurodollar and crude oil setups. All three are in narrow ranges on multiple time frames with inside-range pivots, compared to this week. Monthly pivots are also inside-range on the Eurodollar and crude oil, making this a time-pivots breakout as well. If one considers the last 10 days’ range as a time series, then half of its length could be rotated upwards/downwards in the price axis (use your finger’s distal phalanx for past 5-6 days and rotate 90-degrees up/down) to give a $71.00/barrel or $66.00/barrel target as a rough estimate that may seem today like a crazy place for price to be.
U.S benchmarks are eyeing a strong finish to the week after the S&P 500 closed at the highest level since Jan. 29, the session in which it set its all-time. Amazon beat earnings estimates yesterday after the bell and its gain of 4% premarket has helped the Nasdaq shrug off Facebook’s record loss as it trades more than 1% from yesterday’s low.
Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum were initially ordered by President Trump in March, but subsequently pushed off until June 1. While nothing has been imposed yet, tariffs were top-of-mind for U.S. corporations during first-quarter earnings calls.
Yesterday was a mixed yet disappointing session with all major indices finishing well from their highs. Though the S&P 500 and Dow held green, the Nasdaq settled down 14.25 points and 1% from a new record high while the Russell 2000 lost 1.2% on the session.
U.S. Index futures are pointing to a lower open in the markets, mirroring a downbeat start for European equities. On a micro level, U.S. Index futures have fallen despite the release of mostly better-than-expected company earnings today. Boeing, for example, reported Q2 revenue of $24.3 billion and core EPS of $3.33 and boosted its revenue forecasts, beating expectations of $23.7 billion and $3.27 respectively.
The S&P 500 -- as of 1:45 p.m. Central on Tuesday, July 24, and subject to change before close -- offers daily-chart traders a miniature crash or microcosmic test of a throwback down signal. If the major swing top is near and forming slowly, as mentioned in another Jeff Greenblatt’s work today (and all of Jeff Greenblatt’s books I have read; it is an honor to write anything where he writes), then some minor down-thrust market tests could easily precede a larger drop.
The week of July 23 will likely continue the “low-reversals-consolidations” theme of the prior week (July 16-20). The swing low of gold is in/here, in my opinion (see chart grid below). Do not initiate gold short side positions. Soybeans with a bearish daily & bullish weekly chart and Bitcoin with a 3-Day & Daily Chart sell signal may be the exceptions. Anyone ready to try and catch a falling safe or learn how? Now, it’s a savage sober rave party! This is some serious technical analysis regarding how to identify reversals and invert charts (as in upside down).