The macro story for price action in soybeans appears to be developing bullish potential. The high in 2012 was an “upthrust position,” which ended the bull market that started in late 2008 and early 2009. The decline/bear market,” from the high in 2012 ended the downtrend in 2015 with a spring.
As is the case every July, U.S. weather played the dominant role in agricultural futures markets this month. For the corn belt, it was a very good month; it was the fifth rainiest July in the past 121 years and temperatures were exactly in line with the long term averages. Not surprisingly, many have started to discuss record yields for corn and soybeans. We believe that is a reasonable assumption for corn, but a bit premature for soybeans.
After what is now 4 days of little or no fund trading we are quickly seeing corn go back to what would be considered normal summer trade. That means this market will quickly react to weather map updates every day which is exactly what was seen today.
The performance of July soybean meal futures these past two months has been truly epic. The agricultural markets have had significant rallies in the past, but rarely has a single month of a single commodity staged such a significant solo performance.