The coming week (June 18-22) should continue the trend of trending symbols. The only potential exceptions are gold and soybeans whose weekly pivots are sideways for reversal scalpers and who already made a wide-range move likely to consolidate sideways. However, both gold and beans have trending monthly pivots--a wild card working against my Iron Condor favorite trade.
July soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 5-¼ cents which put them up 44 ¼ cents for the week. Thanks to the big gap higher last Monday, futures traded in just a 28-¼ cent range. Friday’sCommitment of Traders report showed that managed money sold 6,276 futures from May 15th-May 22nd; this puts their net long position at 94,796 futures.
The coming week (May 29-June1) will trend a bit more and in more symbols than this closing week (May 25), according to pivot math. A few narrow-range breakout setups exist, and gold already started its wide-range upturn. Crude Oil has a pivots-based breakout setup on weekly pivots, a weekly chart bearish inverted hammer sell signal as of Thursday night, and 3-day chart narrow-range breakout math
Soybeans have traded as much as 58 cents off of Friday’s lows in the early morning session. There has been renewed hope on the trade side of things, not just that China wouldn’t disappear but perhaps even start buying more agricultural products from the United States.
My “Euro on the go!” headline last week preceded the euro’s trip to nowhere—except deeper into the three-month narrow-range to prepare for its faster-and-farther fireworks fugue to a crazy breakout price! The reverse of the current situation will be too much price in too little time. Let’s review some euro charts to see if a 50-day expiration long overhead call spread and a long 1.225 single put (weekly 20-simple moving average) make sense (see the charts below).
Regarding this week’s forecast, I noted that the British pound, the euro and crude looked bullish, and they behaved so. The projected range in crude offered a good reversal trade level into Wed. Also, my list of breakout symbols (Canadian dollar, crude oil, the pound and the S&P 500) produced pricing outside the prior week’s ranges. As a monthly chart follow-up, VIX futures are forming an inverted hammer, while Ten-year T-Notes formed a reversal long signal last month.
Planes and cars and steel is one thing, but now it’s serious because we are talking soybeans. China decided to hit at the heart of U.S. China trade by taxing the beloved American soybean. The move was viewed by the market as the first real sign that the potential trade war is serious because China loves and need U.S. soybeans. Historically, China introduced the United States to the soybean and we have been happy to sell them back to them.
Weather continues to be a headline story, mostly due to the fact that there is not much else to report on at this point. There are chances for rain in Argentina later in the week, but we are in the camp that thinks it may be too little too late.