Shale

Crude oil prices are trying to balance the risks to oil supply versus the risks to demand. The risk to the demand side of the equation is coming out of Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vowing not to be brought to its knees even as it is him that has driven the Turkish economy into freefall. The Turkish central bank says it will provide all the liquidity that the Turkish banks need. That brought the crashing Lira and stock market back a bit, but it is unclear whether that will provide lasting support.
The past few days have not been kind to the Euro, which has tumbled to levels not seen since July 2017 amid the brewing political chaos in Italy. With recent media reports stating that Italy’s PM-designate Carlo Cottarelli has simply failed to garner any support from major political parties, President Sergio Mattarella could dissolve Parliament in the coming days.
Come join the bull oil party. The room was empty a few years ago but now everybody is jumping on the dance floor. Crude oil is a boom and bust market. Two years ago, we went bust and since then we are in a boom shakalaka. Oil prices closed steady after giving up gains as the June option expiration pressured prices, only to have them stay strong based on the crude realities of strong global demand and tightening supply.
Crude oil prices are pulling back from three-and-a-half-year highs after a leap in the U.S. oil rig count and a relatively calm weekend when it came to geopolitical tensions. Drillers added 10 oil rigs and 3 gas rigs bringing the total oil rig count to 844, the highest level since March 2015, according to Baker Hughes.
Oil is up as the French President shared that idea and said his bet was that President Donald Trump would drop out of the deal because of what he suggested were domestic reasons.
President Trump has said the Iran Nuclear deal was insane and ridiculous, yet that does not necessarily mean that he is going to back out of it. That possibility helped break oil from near a three-and-a-half-year high that had rallied, in part, on threats by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who warned of "severe consequences" if the Trump Administration "betrays the deal."
Mission accomplished. No, I'm not talking about the trade war, but we could be seeing progress on that, and not the attack on Syria, that has not happened, yet. No, we are talking about the global oil market rebalancing. The International Energy Agency that previously warned of lower for longer oil prices and warned last year that the oil price recovery was threatened by the possibility of weak demand now has changed its tune and is now saying that it is 'mission accomplished' for OPEC as oil stocks shrink at a record pace.
A touch of risk aversion crept into financial markets on Wednesday, as the sense of relief over easing U.S.-China trade tensions was overshadowed by the rising geopolitical risk surrounding Syria. Asian stocks closed mostly mixed due to market caution, with European equities sinking lower as investors adopted a guarded approach. Although Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday as trade fears eased, geopolitical tensions could pressure U..S equity bulls this afternoon.
U.S. crude oil production is at a record high but supplies of oil keep falling. Did you stop to wonder why? Well, there are many reasons, such as record demand, but a larger issue has to do with shale oil. Yesterday’s oil initially rallied on a report that Saudi Arabia was raising crude prices for customers showing that they are confident about demand and not worried about losing market share.
Trade War? What trade war? The fears that President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs would plunge the globe into a devastating trade war is easing quite a bit. The Wall Street Journal reported that “'China and the U.S. have quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after a week filled with harsh words from both sides over Washington’s threat to use tariffs to address trade imbalances,' people with knowledge of the matter said."