Unlike the Federal Reserve yesterday, the European Central Bank won’t be raising interest rates later on today, but the EUR/USD could nonetheless push higher.
Today has certainly been an explosively volatile trading session for the euro, despite the European Central Bank leaving its key interest rates and bond purchase stimulus program unchanged.
In July, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the Governing Council would discuss the future of its €60 billion monthly purchases program in the autumn. Technically, autumn in the Northern Hemisphere will not start until Friday, Sept. 22, so there is a possibility that the topic of quantitative easing tapering may not be discussed at this week’s meeting.
Growth in the Eurozone is picking up, unemployment is falling and inflation is accelerating towards the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Other than 2013 during a period of massive QE stimulus every yearly cycle low in the stock market has at least retraced back to the 75 week moving average.
The European Central Bank’s large bond buying programme appears to be finally working its magic.
A stable but lackluster economic outlook will push the European Central Bank to tweak its asset purchase program and announce an extension by year-end, although economists polled by Reuters said a move was unlikely next week.
The Federal Reserve should be cautious on interest rate increases due to lingering risks to the U.S. economy, one of its most influential policymakers said today, appearing to signal the chance of a hike by the end of the year was fading.
The dollar held within sight of recent highs against the euro and yen today ahead of meetings of U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan that investors on balance expect to be positive for the greenback.
We could be in for another rocky week in the markets with particular focus back on the central banks as we get the latest monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, the latter of which is expected to announce new stimulus measures.