Investors are likely to have breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S. stock markets’ worst start to the second quarter since the 1929 Great Depression failed to encourage a widespread selloff across the global markets, as traders returned to their desks after the annual Easter holidays.
Brexit, trade wars, slow economic growth and heightened tensions with Russia, not exactly the ideal environment for a central bank to consider raising interest rates. Yet, that's exactly what the Bank of England is doing and on Thursday, they may signal and intention to do just that at the next meeting in May.
The British Pound immediately weakened against the dollar on Tuesday morning after UK inflation fell more than expected in February. Consumer price inflation eased to a 7-month low at 2.7% in February, down from 3% in January, as the impact of Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled selloff faded.
The U.S. dollar is mixed against major pairs ahead of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed is expected to deliver its fist interest rate lift under Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed will publish its rate statement on Wednesday, March 21 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Strong data has fuelled the dollar revival but the drama in the White House and tariff uncertainty are keeping the currency down against safe haven currencies.
Soybeans and crude oil have the most trending pivot math for the coming week, and all of my tracked symbols have narrow ranges on one or more of daily, weekly, or monthly charts. The Aussie, Pound, Crude, and Gold are range-compressed on all three charts! Breakouts are brewing.
If sterling were to climb higher next week then its best bet would be against a weaker currency like the Swiss franc. The franc weakened a little yesterday after the Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment in keeping monetary policy extremely loose and intervening in the forex market if necessary to weaken the currency. Thus, the British pound/Swiss franc (GBP/CHF) currency pair remains fundamentally supported.