You can talk all you want about rising U.S. oil production, but the fact is that U.S. crude oil supply is below average. The Energy Information Agency, in its weekly report, said that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels to 428.3 million barrels, which the EIA says are the lower half of the average range for this time of year. This is happening even as U.S. oil production reportedly increased to 10.047 million barrels of oil a day.
Quant Cycles (formerly called the Cycle Projection Oscillator) is a technical tool that uses proprietary statistical techniques and complex algorithms to filter multiple cycles from historical data, combines them to obtain cyclical information from price data and then gives a graphical representation of their productive behavior. Other proprietary frequency domain techniques then are employed to obtain the cycles embedded in the price.
“What is Aramco?” When asked whether it is an international oil company or a national oil company former Aramco CEO and former Saudi oil minister Ali al Naimi said, “I can tell you – and I’m not biased — that Aramco is no less than Chevron or ExxonMobil.” He had not quite answered the question. “We are a by-product of those companies; and we are different from, say, Kuwait National Oil Company,” Naimi continued.
Springtime seasonal in crude oil is being fed by a multitude of factors. Record gasoline demand, falling Venezuelan production, rising tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world is underpinning oil and oil product prices today. President Donald Trump is meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the market is assuming that means that the United States and Saudi Arabia will take a tougher stance against Iran.
There is a lot on the plate for crude oil this week. Not only do we have the Fed meeting, we have the possibility of new sanctions on Russia and the potential pullback from the Iranian nuclear deal. This came against a backdrop of surging global demand for oil and related products.
Crude oil has broken through levels not seen since 2014 and it appears to be entering a new phase, ending the downward super cycle that took crude from above $100 per barrel to under $30, and entering a phase where both supply and demand are expected to grow.