The week of Aug. 6 presents the start of a massive crude oil price move. It also offers weekly and monthly trending pivots in the Japanese yen, near weekly-chart lows. The Eurodollar has higher monthly pivots overlapping last month’s pivots, forming a range break setup in trending pivot math for the next four weeks and on the monthly camarilla low-reversal pivots. Additional Euro supports include the monthly 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
Crude oil prices are rising. We have a falling U.S. oil rig count and a surprise drop in Saudi oil production, against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical risk. Baker Hughes’ oil rig was countdown two, gas rig count dipped by three.
U.S equity benchmarks melted higher yesterday. The S&P hit our major three-star support dead on early in the session before reversing strongly and settling right at major three-star resistance. The two biggest companies in the world did what they do best; lead. Apple gained another 3% yesterday, tallying a near 10% gain on the week from our buy target at 188-190. Amazon added 2% and Microsoft 1.2% while the disheveled Facebook and Netflix both bounced back from recent earnings disappointments.
Snapback after a whack, give a dog a bone, this old man comes rolling home. It looked doomy and gloomy in crude oil for a while as trade war fears and reports of increases in OPEC and Russian oil production weighed on market psyche. Yet, after a report about another drop in supply in the Cushing, Okla., delivery point, and talk that U.S. oil production is not what it was reported to be, the mood quickly shifted.
Global equity markets are lower this morning and we cannot say we are surprised. In fact, we warned of this exact scenario; U.S and China trade tensions will build in the headlines once we got through Apple’s earnings and the Fed drift. The Bank of England hiked interest rates 25 basis points this morning as expected, but a warning of economic headwinds has sent the Pound a penny lower.
The U.S. petroleum markets were just trying to adjust to a surprise increase in U.S. crude supply, when The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump Administration is considering more than doubling proposed tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%, up from an original 10% tariff that was put in place before.
Crude oil prices are back under pressure as there are reports that the United States is looking to more than double tariffs on China, as well as a shockingly bearish weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Out of nowhere, the API reported a 5.590 million barrel build, confounding experts and expectations as well as a big 2.890-million-barrel increase in distillate supply. Gasoline did fall by 791,00 barrels but with trade war fears keeping us on edge, today's Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply report will be more important than today's Fed announcement.
Crude prices, which were on the rise on concerns of tightening supply and growing desperations that the loss of Iranian oil supplies would not be easily replaced, may have found a ray of hope. Present Donald Trump said in a press conference at the White House with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte that he would be willing to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani any time "whenever they want” and without preconditions, raising hopes that perhaps an Iranian crude oil embargo might be avoided.
Crude oil prices are stuck between a rock and a range with seasonal weakness, as well as the promise of more oil production, which is alleviating fears of a tightening global marketplace. On Friday, the market was looking for a reason to rally or break. It got the reason to break on a report by The Wall Street Journal that Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who said he “did not rule out… an increase in oil production in excess of 1 million barrels a day may be discussed.”