Have we reached the zero hour? Time windows don’t have to validate although much of the time they do. I can tell you one thing, we have a very interesting news event at day 610 off the February 2016 bottom. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin are meeting as I’m writing this. In any era, when the two superpowers meet face to face it’s a big deal. Given everything, we’ve been through the past couple of years its an even bigger deal.
Nasdaq (NDAQ) announced on July 2 that it will launch a suite of interest rate products— DV01 U.S. Treasury Futures — on the Nasdaq Futures Exchange (NFX) by later this month pending regulatory approval.
This is supposed to be a seasonally bullish period. From the end of quarter window dressing through the July 4 holiday the stock market tilts to the bullish side; not always or every year but generally speaking. Why the markets are open on July 4 is another story, but consider the first and last hour without the midday doldrums.
As we mentioned last month, despite May’s reputation as being a time to sell, other months — June, August and September, in particular — historically produce much worse equity market performance. June is a particularly poor performer, averaging negative performance in both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.
Each month in our calendar section we provide an outlook on how the major equity indexes behave in that particular month along with the dates of the important economic reports released that month. We try and dig a little deeper in examining monthly performance to extract trends.
Global equities are once again opening the week on the back foot as a joint story from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg further exacerbated US-China trade tensions. The report alleges that the US will increase scrutiny of Chinese investments in certain US industries deemed critical to economic and national security.
DB1, CME: the ECB working group on euro risk-free rates is calling on market participants and interested parties to comment on its assessment of candidate euro risk-free rates against key selection criteria. The new euro risk-free rate will replace EONIA, which will no longer meet the criteria of the EU Benchmarks.
So, what about that wedge in the Nasdaq I was looking at last week? The upward momentum stalled 61 days from the prior high. Oddly enough, it was tech stocks that stalled last week while McDonald's had that big day on Thursday which drove the Dow. MCD is rated seventh in the Dow in terms of its weighting. A lot of other Dow names started well but backed off. On the same day all the FAANGs got hit.
Major U.S. benchmarks are holding Monday’s gains and then some this morning after the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high to start the week. Europe is leading this morning, the DAX is + 0.8% while Asia is muted. Traders want to keep an eye on Europe as Italy’s new PM Conte faces a bit of a confidence vote, though the coalition that appointed him has a majority.