The seasonal is for the cash cattle to hold from a peak until the first week of April. Futures have a different seasonal though. They have a typical peak on March 4. For the April the seasonal break goes until March 17. On the June the break typically lasts until April 21. We suggest this year's pattern will follow the seasonal.
Lean hog futures are down about 30% from this time last year, falling to $.57 per pound in the December contract on July 13th. The recent rally has bumped prices nearly 13% off the July lows. Based on technical, seasonal and fundamental resistance, we expect this rally to fail and hog prices to decline through the end of October and possibly through year's end.
Wholesale pork is now at its highest level since Feb. 22. Cash hogs are at their highest level since Jan. 29. It is great to see this market is reacting to lower supplies that are now being offered. Our only real criticism of this rally is that it is coming very slowly.