Oil is getting a yearend squeeze as inventories fall and geopolitical risks seem to be rising. War in South Sudan, a terror attack in Russia and labor trouble in Libya are giving the bulls a little ride.
Brent crude went crazy as Libyan oil exports were not to be, and today oil prepares for the Fed meeting. The EIA says that in 2016, crude oil production is expected to be close to the historical high of 9.6 million barrels per day, a record set in 1970.
A showdown in Libya is spiking oil as rebels refuse to allow the government to ship oil from three different ports. The government last week said that oil would be shipped even if they had to use force.
The petroleum market will be obsessed with thawing relations and thawing turkeys. The ultra-low sulfur diesel led a comeback in energy in the aftermath of skepticism surrounding the surprise deal with Iran.
The Jan Brent/WTI spread has been mostly in a narrowing mode this week as the market seems to be more focused on what could be an improvement in some of the lingering international supply issues rather than focused on the growing surplus of oil in the U.S.
Gunmen yesterday seized Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from a hotel in central Tripoli, releasing him shortly afterwards, but making it clear that post-Gaddafi Libya is a failed state and that the government is incapable of taking full control over its oilfields and export terminals.
Oil and products did a supply slide as disruption in supply all around the globe seemed to come online all at one time. In Libya, South Sudan, Nigeria and Iraq supply that was slowed or halted is coming back online.