In a piece subtly titled “Institutional Investors are Delusional,” Meb Faber points out that the mean expectations in a poll of investors on net returns is 13%. That would require a gross return of 20%. Just 1% of more than 400 respondents (so just four people) are rational.
"It was theft and you knew it. It was fraud and you knew it, And you know what else? We know that you knew it. I don't know if justice is coming for you in this life or the next but if it does come in this life? Her name will be Elizabeth Warren."
Despite a rising chorus of criticism about mediocre performance and high fees, the alternative investment industry in general, and hedge funds in particular, remain where Wall Street’s best and brightest money managers congregate.
Citadel founder Ken Griffin reflected on his career in the markets starting during his pre-internet years at Harvard University at the 2016 Salt Conference. During an interview with SALT Founder and SkyBridge CEO Anthony Scarramuchi, Griffin discussed how he and his team built Citadel, the importance of a strong corporate culture, and his positive views on entrepreneurialism in the United States.
“I think you need to prepare for a Trump presidency.” That’s Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital. During a presentation at the Sohn Conference, Gundlach recommended that investors sell the utilities index and shot toward mortgage REITS. But the key quote from Gundlach’s talk was his expectation that Trump can win and offered a key tagline that made him bullish on Trump.
Many fear hedge funds are pushing up crude oil prices prematurely, which will lead to a renewed crash when the bubble bursts, as it did after the last big run-up in prices between January and May 2015. John Kemp argues that hedge funds and speculators are not driving the recent rally in oil prices. That’s a pretty stark argument from a very good piece in January by F. William Engdahl, who argued in January that 60% of today’s oil price is driven by speculation.