Soybeans began the week like they ended last week, on a volatile note as January traded a 14-½ cent range. Weakness was attributed to a continuing run up in the U.S. dollar and a weaker Chinese market. The U.S. dollar continues to see strength as the rest of the world currencies are under pressure and the bond market continues to fall apart which is pushing money to the United States. The Chinese soybean market was down another 5% overnight after dropping 4% on Friday.
There was little doubt at all fund buying was seen in the corn on Monday. Now the next question should be: Is this just a one day buy to start a new month and new quarter or if this is going to be a longer term short covering event for the funds?
In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 330-¾ ,which is ¾ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 331-¾ to 329-¼. Weather remains a huge factor as we head further into harvest when we worry about forecasts of frosts and Indian Summer. After Monday’s USDA data we are all talking about yields and exports.
Spill over selling continued again today in corn, which helped to post new contract lows. Soybeans consolidated within Friday's range on Monday as supply bears and demand bulls continued to do battle. Wheat saw another negative day as new lows were made again.
The macro story for price action in soybeans appears to be developing bullish potential. The high in 2012 was an “upthrust position,” which ended the bull market that started in late 2008 and early 2009. The decline/bear market,” from the high in 2012 ended the downtrend in 2015 with a spring.
As is the case every July, U.S. weather played the dominant role in agricultural futures markets this month. For the corn belt, it was a very good month; it was the fifth rainiest July in the past 121 years and temperatures were exactly in line with the long term averages. Not surprisingly, many have started to discuss record yields for corn and soybeans. We believe that is a reasonable assumption for corn, but a bit premature for soybeans.