U.S. benchmarks are extending gains for a fourth consecutive day and the S&P traded to the highest level since March 13th. The overnight high of 2797.75 took out the June 13 high of 2796. What trade war? Of course, at these levels markets are not pricing in the risk of an escalating trade war.
The coming week (July 13) should yield an array of trending bullish breakouts, upticks, and up-to-sideways plays (except bearish-sideways crude oil). How are we going to know which bull trades to take/place that are clear signals or high-probability wins? I don’t know. I can lay out the information I have for informed/educated reader decisions that include the countertrade perspectives.
U.S. tariffs on $34 billon of Chinese goods went into effect at midnight ET and the S&P 500 spiked higher 10 minutes later. The market was technically positioned to do such, and it has pared those gains since. As expected, China quickly retaliated with symmetrical tariffs of their own.
As expected, gold made nice three waves of correction back to projected 1250 support level, but there can be room for deeper and more complex correction down to around 61,8% Fib. retracement and 1245 level.
After a losing ground into the close on Tuesday, major U.S benchmarks are all higher coming out of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Investors and traders alike await a deluge of data and news over these next two days including Friday’s tariff deadline and jobs report. This morning brings an early look at jobs data with ADP Payrolls at 7:15 am Central.
After Monday’s price action, you'd be excused to think that today would have been a “risk-on” day. After all, the major stock averages ended Monday with relatively large green candles and there was some bullish follow-through at the European open. That’s why we thought gold’s earlier rally looked suspicious and that the metal could weaken again.
The U.S. dollar ended higher for the third consecutive month in June and made a positive start to the new month and quarter on Monday. However, today it has given up Monday’s gains and was, therefore, trading flat on the week at the time of writing.