Third-quarter GDP rose 3.5%, surpassing the median expectation of 3.0% on Bloomberg, and pulling the average growth rate up from 1.25% in the first half of the year up to 2% over the first nine months of the year. In the details, consumption rose 1.8% in Q3 just shy of the 1.9% rise expected, but a noticeable pullback from a 2.5% spending pace in Q2.
The GDP report was unusually boosted by trade in the third-quarter. Typically, exports add and imports drag from the report. The net contribution from both sides of the ledger was 1.3% and the highest reading since the second-quarter of 2009.
What’s likely adding to investors’ nervousness is whether the latest reading for retail spending marks the end of the near 45-degree rise since March 2009 that coincides with the onset of the bull market.
Given the recent performance of GBP/USD the forex markets seem to be veering towards the U.S. raising interest rates first, but there's still a chance that the Bank of England could pip the U.S. Federal Reserve to the post.
Where they've been tried, the evidence shows, well-designed carbon taxes have succeeded in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. But that doesn't necessarily end the debate over their effects—nor should it.