Today’s publication of key macro data from some of the world’s most important economies has been far from impressive, underscoring key central banks’ cautious approach about normalizing monetary policy.
The euro opened the week on a strong note, recovering back to last week’s high near the 1.2450 mark. Price action moved sharply higher on the European open at 2:00 am CT and saw further gains as the U.S. dollar weakened on frothy data and a tweet from President Trump.
The U.S. dollar lost against most majors even if it appreciated against safe-haven currencies on Friday. The Syrian conflict concerns faded at the end of the week and boosted the USD versus the JPY and the CHF. The release of the meeting notes from the March Federal Open Market Committee proved to be a positive for the American currency as the Fed was more hawkish than expected. Next up for the markets will be the release of retail sales data in the United States and the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statements.
The Australian dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair has been coiling for a few weeks now. The bodies of the weekly candlestick bars have been getting smaller as price tested long-term support around 0.7650. This was formerly a major resistance level. In addition, it is also where a long-term bullish trend line comes into play. Thus, the fact that the AUD/USD is holding above this level is significant. Could we now see some range expansion to the upside?
Europe was closed for Easter Monday and the Euro had the lowest volume since the day after Christmas. After opening higher Sunday night and trading more than a halfpenny in the green, the Euro pared all gains to make a new low before settling near the middle of the session’s range.
It’s a “King CAD” kind of day in the FX market, with the loonie rallying against all of her major rivals. The proximate catalyst is (wait for it) the latest scuttlebutt about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).