Despite this morning’s slight disappointment in Eurozone GDP (0.3% q/q vs. 0.4% expected), there hasn’t been too much movement in the foreign exchange markets as traders look ahead to a promising late summer weekend
Today’s economic data kicked off with the release of the ADP employment report, one of the better leading indicators for Friday’s marquee NFP report. The massive payroll provider determined that the US economy created 185k jobs last month, below the 216k expected by economists and traders. The June report was also revised down slightly, from 237k to 229k.
Another month is coming to the end, and after all the China- and Greece-related fears of late June and early July, the lower-volatility “dog days” of summer (all due apologies to Southern hemisphere readers) have finally come to the fore over the last couple weeks.
It’s been a quiet overnight session for most major currencies as market participants refrained from placing large trades ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. As we noted yesterday, the central bank is unlikely to make any outright changes to monetary policy, but the wording of the accompanying statement could tilt the scales in the hotly-contested “September vs. December” (for the first rate hike) debate.
Given the consistently strong U.S. data though, a dip toward the near-term bullish trend line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around .9425-50 would be a more conservative target in the dollar/Swiss franc currency pair.