If I am concerned about anything it is the U.S. dollar, which is threatening to fall apart. As you can see on the chart below, recent action shows an inability to get above that recent gigantic red power bar in the leg off the 616 hour low. It failed, came to the inflection line you see which is the beginning of the real candle body for the red bar. It came down to it, held support and started breaking down. It's not terminal yet but if they bounce it and it fails at that line it will be see ya in the next lifetime.
It’s the middle of September and no disasters yet. That’s a good sign. But we are not out of the woods yet. Last week we were looking at a window from Pi to Shemita. It’s possible the Pi fired off. First of all we have the DAX, which left a bearish belt on Wednesday. The margin of error is 2 days and when you consider it took over 31000 days to get here that should be okay.
But that’s not all. As you know the bottoming process spreads out during 3 days from March 6-9; so that means the whole week will be a big time golden spiral window. Just stay with us, you’ll see. We’ve caught just about every important market turn for the past 16 years.
Suddenly, markets are hitting trouble all over the place. I can’t tell you how many outs we have left but it appears we are starting to run low. We are coming to the slowest trading period of the year so I don’t think the market is in any imminent danger but I am starting to get concerned about what can happen in the fall.
Risk is still extremely high and I still believe there could be an event before the end of the year that torpedoes the market. For right now we are due to back and fill. Like March 2011, a decent move commenced but it lasted about 6 weeks. We are coming to the second half of July, its vacation time for the markets. Nothing too drastic should happen here as August is just about the slowest month of the year. But once September gets here my antenna will be out.