What a very strange week. Last Wednesday the Transports led to the upside while the Dow lagged. You’ll recall the Dow lagged because IBM got clobbered on their earnings report. Also, the BKX along with Goldman Sachs flattened out. Goldman is still moving to the downside. Why is this important? IBM is the 9th weighted stock in the Dow while Goldman Sachs is number two.
Crude oil ran into tech trouble as the U.S. tech sector is under fire leading to a sell-off in stocks against a backdrop of rising oil inventory. The data breach scandal at Facebook is only one of many quick rising problems for the many tech firms and I am sure somewhere the Winklevoss twins are smiling.
The Nasdaq 100 has been lurking within 2% of its all-time high since late February and Friday’s monster gain of 1.8% finally achieved the inevitable.February’s Consumer Price Index data is due out Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. Central. The Core read that excludes food and energy is the most closely watched data point. Industrial Production, Fixed Asset investment and Retail Sales are due out of China on TuesdayEvening.
One way to prevent losses in a deteriorating position is the use of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss order is activated when a stock, ETF or futures contract reaches a certain price point. Let’s use the example of Facebook. On the afternoon of Jan. 4, 2018, a purchase of FB is made at $185. After rising above $188 a stop is placed to sell FB at $184 (just below the previous high close) on Jan. 11. This means that at $184 the stop becomes a market sell order and the long position is liquidated.
Whether or not the corporate tax rate drops to 20% won’t matter much to U.S. companies, which have put up a stellar performance this year and are expected to continue their run into 2018. The S&P 500 saw earnings grow nearly 10% in 2017 (through Dec. 4), an annual rate not seen since 2011.
With volatility over the last two years at record lows traders have been itching to trade something that really moves. Bitcoin definitely fits that description. On the first day of 2017 bitcoin traded above $1,000 for the first time since January of 2014. The highest price for bitcoin at the time was 1,216.70 in 2013. By June 5, 2017, the price more than doubled to 2,874.00. On Nov. 12 it was trading at $5,426.
It was a fine intraday shorting opportunity on the YM. Like most days those of us keeping our nose to the grindstone work to eke out some points. Check this out, it doesn’t get much nicer than this. The pivot in question is 233 min (Fibonacci) high to high to 21987 and the 987 is the vibration (Fibonacci).