The coming week (June 18-22) should continue the trend of trending symbols. The only potential exceptions are gold and soybeans whose weekly pivots are sideways for reversal scalpers and who already made a wide-range move likely to consolidate sideways. However, both gold and beans have trending monthly pivots--a wild card working against my Iron Condor favorite trade.
As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada noted earlier today, the euro spiked briefly after this morning’s ECB meeting before reversing violently back to the downside in a mirror of yesterday’s price action in the US dollar.
The euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair spiked higher before coming under intense selling pressure in the immediate aftermath of the European Central Bank meeting as speculators judged the policy statement to be overall more bearish than bullish.
Although the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in June, investors are likely to be more concerned with the latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. Expectations remain somewhat elevated over the ECB potentially signaling an end to (quantitive easing) QE at the meeting. While hawkish comments from ECB officials and accelerating inflation have fuelled speculation over QE coming to an end, this could be a classic case where markets may be setting themselves up for disappointment.
Gold faces an important few days as three major central banks announce their respective policy decisions. All bar one is expected to make a rate change and that’s the Federal Reserve today. According to the to the CME’s FedWatch tool the probability of a 25 basis point rate increase is 96%, which means it is more or less already priced in. That may help explain why the dollar has stopped going up since the end of May.
This is the biggest week of the year and the euro started off on solid footing. It is still having difficulty getting through technical resistance but firm comments from Italian Finance Minister that they will not leave the Euro were supportive.
Ahead of next week’s major central bank meetings and key data releases, the market’s focus has turned to trade tensions as the G7 meetings get underway in Canada and it looks like U.S. President Donald Trump is taking on the whole world. While leaders of the “G7-1” are showing great unity, Trump continues to isolate himself by demanding “fair” trade agreements especially with Canada and the European Union.
The G7 Summit comes into focus to finish out the week. One week after announcing tariffs on the EU, Canada and Mexico, President Trump will meet with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the European Union. Tensions are due to run high, which also means the market’s low expectations should not create any surprise currency moves.
Ahead of next week’s major central bank meetings and key data releases, there have been some interesting moves in the markets with the euro/U.S. dollar currency pair in particular showing relative strength. Although the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates next week, it is the European Central Bank which all of a sudden is looking to be the more anticipated meeting.