U.S. output was down significantly because of Hurricane Delta and should rebound this week. Yet will it recover to pre-hurricane levels of over 11 million bpd?
It’s the oldest story in the commodity world, supply versus demand. Global oil supplies have tighten at an incredible pace. Yet fears that the demand recovery will falter, flipping us back to an oversupplied market, are keeping prices anchored.
With compliance at 103% and the global crude glut evaporating, OPEC still has to worry about a faltering economy.
The IEA'a "The World Energy Outlook 2020,” its annual flagship publication, focuses on the pivotal period of the next 10 years, exploring different pathways out of the crisis. This is a long-term outlook, and we know that these predictions are sometimes wildly wrong in oil.
Oil refinieries and export ports were shut down due to Hurricane Delta, and the clean up effort is already showing signs of progress.
Oil prices are also getting support because Saudi Arabia and Russia may be having second thoughts about raising oil output again next year. OPEC says they expect demand in most developed countries to fall by about 27% over next 25 years.
Stymied oil futures were stopped in their bullish tracks after President Trump tweeted. The crude oil market also lost more ground after the API report showed a surprise increase in crude oil supply.
Delta and Gamma are going to create volatility in the energy markets. No, I’m not talking about the the risk variable of options or the relationship of the opportunity with another underlying variable but Tropical Storm Gamma and Hurricane Delta.
The oil market is on the mend and may have finally found its seasonal bottom. Stimulus hopes, a healing President Trump, and storm fears are giving the oil a risk-on rally.
The best way to explain the market action in the energy complex is to compare it to last night's presidential debate—kind of a mess with a lot of data that does not seem to match the current reality. Market action, to say the least, has been lousy.