In recent weeks, hedge funds abandoned the oil complex as they worried that the resumption of Iranian nuclear talks would bring a flood of oil to the marketplace. Yet, they boosted their net long position to the highest level in nearly 3 years last week.
It doesn’t help that there’s not a lot of new news. There were concerns about a drop in Chinese imports and also news about the resumption of the Iranian nuclear talks, but it still looks like a longshot when it comes to lifting sanctions.
In the past when oil processing rose, rig counts would increase rapidly, raising U.S. production; that isn’t happening this time. Banks are turning their back on U.S. energy, giving rise to a new era of OPEC+ dominance.
Not only did a fire break out and sink the 207-meter Kharg, Iran’s largest warship, a fire continues to rage at one of its largest state-owned refinery and chemical company, the Tondgooyan Petrochemical Co.
Global demand is rising and the world is more than likely headed towards an oil supply squeeze. Demand is recovering faster than supply: U.S. rig counts rose by only 3 last week and crude oil inventories are falling.
Oil prices are being boosted by increasing demand and demand expectations, along with the fact that an Iran nuclear deal is becoming more difficult to reach, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that it’s unlikely that Iran will comply.