When I noticed the four-week moving average claimant count had fallen to its lowest level since April 2000, I thought it might make sense to rip up the script and take a trip down memory lane instead. The latest average reading of 279,000 was last seen 14-years ago when the US population totaled 281-million.
The S&P 500 stock index has now gone well over three years without experiencing even a 10% correction, despite the fact that these pullbacks have occurred an average of once per year since 1928. This is this the fifth longest such streak since 1950.
“The economy has got good momentum,” said Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The second half of the year is going to look a good deal better than the first half.”
Even after five years of the Fed’s most aggressive accommodative policy in history, there is still a lack of hoped for quality credit creation in the economy, which could be a sign that the greatest deleveraging of the U.S. economy since the Great Depression is still not complete. The Fed’s unrelenting dovish policy appears to support this concern.