Another week, more all-time highs. For the Dow, that meant the 21,169 high at 170 days after Brexit held for 65 days. Do you think 69 days from that March 1 high will be significant? It might and just as important this week is 144 days from the early November low just before the election. The freight train has more cycle excuses to take a pause or even a fall.
It is going to be a big week for the markets this one, especially towards the end of it. Among other things, we will have the UK’s general elections, the ECB’s latest policy decision and former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony all to look forward to on Thursday. Chinese trade figures, a rate decision by the RBA and Canadian employment figures are among the week’s other key events.
The U.S. dollar is lower across the board versus major currencies. The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) grew by 138,000 jobs in May short of the 180,000 forecasted and there were downward revisions to the two previous months. The employment trend continues to be strong as evidenced by the fall in the unemployment rate to its lowest since 2001, 4.3%. The market is still pricing in a 91.2% of a rate hike in June with U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 100–125 basis points range.