The biggest, best, massive tax cut plan in all human history was not enough to shake the petroleum sector out of its bearish slumber. The petroleum sector has been dripping down slowly like a good old fashion water torture as the market is fixated on short-term supplies and not our future. While the market continues to believe that shale oil is going to plug the gap in the global oil market, it will at some point find out that shale oil is a band-aid on what is becoming a gaping wound.
The Federal Reserve with its historic ending of quantitative easing seemed almost hawkish and perhaps a bit oblivious to the impact that the ending of QE might have on the Europe and the rest of the world.
Why all this interest in the long side of natural gas? Because the hedge funds realize that we are crossing that historic turning point in this market where demand growth expectations will start to outstrip production increases.
We seem to be entering the month of March more like a lamb than a lion, but that could be more because of the fact that U.S spending cuts may improve our balance sheet and help deflate asset bubbles like we have seen in metals, stocks and even oil.
A surge on talk of refining issues and tight gasoline blending components sent prices flying. Yet the lack of follow-through with crude oil and heating oil may mean that this run on gas may soon be coming to an end.
Beware the Ides of March and be aware of the drop in distillate inventories in this week’s oil inventory report. Even Julius Caesar himself might have reason to be concerned about Europe and their cold winter.